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e Economic Survey presented on the eve of the Union Budget has been dominated by a singular action of the government. As Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian stated, “To deify or demonise demonetisation that is the difficult question the world is asking, to which the survey tries to respond.” Describing the November 8 decision to withdraw high-value currency notes as a “radical governance-cum-social engineering measure” aimed at punitively raising the cost of illicit activities, Mr. Subramanian and his team acknowledge the complexities in assessing its potential impact as well as the lack of historical precedent to make reliable predictions. The Survey, however, emphatically asserts that while there have been short-term costs to the economy, which would need to be expeditiously addressed, there will be long-term benefits. Real GDP growth in the current fiscal, the Survey projects, will see a likely reduction by one quarter to half a percentage point relative to the baseline of ab...

Despite the new land acquisition law, questions of resettlement and rehabilitation persist The Bhangar violence in West Bengal recalls yet again the intensity of conflicts over the acquisition of land for infrastructure projects. These conflicts continue despite the new and ostensibly improved land acquisition law, with its higher terms of compensation, social impact assessments, and prior informed consent for projects involving the private sector. But if the 2013 law was enacted to comprehensively address opposition to land acquisition, why do governments still get land acquisition wrong? Infrastructure projects are initiated for the “greater common good”, but the people dispossessed by them of their land, livelihood, and environment rarely benefit from all their goodness. The scale of the projects keeps growing. The information regarding them is little or often not accessible at all, and those affected discover the project’s full implications either by accident or by doggedly ex...

The welfare challenge lies in providing assistance to needy households to ensure adequate diets without creating conditions in which they opt for inferior diets that are too heavy on cereals With the Kerala government’s decision to implement the National Food Security Act (NFSA) from April, the whole country will be covered by the legislation. However, if we expect the NFSA to improve India’s malnutrition statistics, we may well be disappointed. According to a study by Himanshu and Abhijit Sen, even before the NFSA is fully implemented, use of the public distribution system (PDS) expanded sharply with proportion of households getting PDS subsidy rising from about 25% in 2004-05 to 50% in 2011-12. However, decline in child malnutrition has been far more modest. A patchy record While we still do not have nationwide data on malnutrition, State-wise data from Annual Health Survey/District Level Health Surveys of 2012-14 as well as National Family Health Survey IV of 2015-16 sugg...

The Trump presidency in the U.S. is less than two weeks old, but it is already clear that it represents an unusually fierce assault on civic, political, and moral values As a student of international politics, I can certainly suggest various ways in which U.S. President Donald J. Trump may be good for one country or another. From the vantage point of New Delhi, his focus on terrorism, his business interests in India, and his radical indifference to non-proliferation all present strategic opportunities. From my perch in London, I also understand why Theresa May, Prime Minister of the U.K., is aggressively courting the Trump administration. A trade deal with Washington would bolster the government’s hand in departure negotiations with the European Union, and American support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation remains crucial to Britain’s interests. This is all legitimate diplomacy, of course. If we work with those who imprison journalists (Turkey), shoot demonstrators (Iran) o...

Not ideological affinity, but prospects of power and pelf determine the making and unmaking of political alliances. The Shiv Sena is the closest to the Bharatiya Janata Party in terms of ideology and policies, but a parting of ways of the two parties was always just around the corner. Differences over seat-sharing for the polls to the urban local bodies in Maharashtra were inevitable as each party was seeking to expand its influence at the expense of the other. Quite understandably, the Sena is yet to reconcile itself to its situation as a junior partner of the BJP after the 2014 Assembly election, when it won fewer seats than the BJP did after contesting alone following a similar breakdown in seat-sharing negotiations. Having headed the government in 1995, the first time the alliance tasted power in the State, the Sena greatly resents the role of a minor partner of the BJP in the government. If the party does not win back its support base, ceded mostly to the BJP, it will not be able...

American President Donald Trump implemented his campaign promise of “extreme vetting” on Friday when he announced that his administration had banned, for 90 days via executive order, travellers from seven Muslim-majority nations: Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan were not on the list, perhaps owing to the close economic and strategic ties that Washington, and indeed the Trump Organization, have with some of these nations — although White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus indicated that Pakistan may be put on the list, going forward. Mr. Trump has placed on hold indefinitely the U.S.’s asylum programme for refugees from Syria, and suspended entry of all refugees to the U.S. for 120 days. While he may have enthused his core constituency of predominantly white, blue-collar workers, beset with economic and racial insecurities, his order sent shock waves at home and abroad, and sparked fears that it could create a recruitment bonanza for...

As Nandini Shah, a health-conscious young working mother in New Delhi, enters a supermarket, she knows exactly what to buy. She picks Bournvita for her 11-year-old son and Fortune VIVO Diabetes-Care Oil for her husband. “Bournvita will help build stamina in my son who has interest in sports, and the oil can help manage diabetes of my husband,” she says. Deepti Khanna, a college student from a posh South Delhi locality, carefully reads nutrition facts on the label before buying grocery items. “I prefer NutriChoice Essentials Oats cookies and Sunfeast Farmlite Digestive over other biscuits as they have a high fibre content, are made out of whole grains and have no added sugar,” says Khanna. She also buys ragi (finger millet) cookies for her diabetic father and Saffola Masala Oats for a healthy snack in the morning. While Shah and Khanna are happy with their choices, the claims based on which they choose the products may not be entirely true. An analysis by Delhi-based Centre for Scien...

The gap in health indicators among different regions is increasing in India, points out the Economic Survey 2017, calling the situation as “perplexing”. “Despite growing rapidly on average, there is sign of growing regional inequality among the Indian states. This is puzzling because the underlying forces in favour of equalisation within India—namely strong and rising movements of goods and people— are strongly evident,” says the Economic Survey that was released on January 31. India’s progress on health indicators is also lagging when compared to other countries similar to it in progress and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as per the survey. For instance, life expectancy in India is much lower than the average country on health parameters. The performances of states is also below par. Kerala’s life expectancy has increased by a mere 1.7 per cent over the past 11 years, which is lower than a country that started off with similar status in health indicators. This holds tru...

The real gross domestic product growth for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) is expected to be between 6.75 and 7.5 per cent, according to the Economic Survey 2016-17, which was tabled in the Parliament today. Even under this forecast, India would remain the fastest growing major economy in the world, it added. The GDP growth for the current fiscal is estimated at 7.1 per cent while the same was 7.6 per cent in 2015-16. The forecast is based on four major factors: exports, consumption, private investment and government. The survey said that the country’s exports are recovering, buoyed by increased global economic activity. The uptick is expected to continue in the aftermath of the US elections and expectations of a fiscal stimulus, it added. However, the outlook for private consumption was less clear, the survey said, adding that international oil prices are expected to be about 10-15 per cent higher in 2017 compared to 2016, which would create a drag of about 0.5 percentage points. “On the o...

Taking a major stride towards understanding effects of pesticides on endangered species, the first rigorous nationwide study by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that about 97 per cent of over 1,800 animals and plants protected under the Endangered Species Act are threatened by two commonly used pesticides: malathion and chlorpyrifos. The results of the study, which were released on January 18, claimed that another 78 per cent are likely to be harmed by pesticide diazinon. “When it comes to pesticides, it’s always best to look before you leap, to understand the risks to people and wildlife before they’re put into use,” said Nathan Donley, senior scientist at the Center for Biological Diversity. Based on the final biological evaluations, Donley called for “some commonsense measures to help protect them along with our water supplies and public health”. The pesticides mentioned above are all organophosphates—a dangerous class of insecticides found in 87 per cent of hu...

It was a mid-winter morning when we first met her at the anganwadi centre of Mai, a small village by the bank of the River Ganga in Bihar’s Munger district. The breakfast session at the anganwadi centre was just over, though some of the children were still busy with the last remains of sattu ki laddu in their dirty hands. Savita Devi, the sahayika (helper) at the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) centre, was already in the midst of preparing lunch for those kids. However, the sevika of the anganwadi was nowhere to be seen. When asked about her absence, Savita replied that the sevika had stopped attending her job as her salary was pending for four months. And it was evident from the way Savita answered that, she, too, would follow suit any day. Later that day, we visited the next village called Damodarpur Mohuli. It presented a bleaker picture. The only anganwadi in the village has been non-functional for the past six months as the anganwadi worker has not received her sal...

Conservation of forests in the Himalayas featured prominently during the 2nd international dialogue on Himalayan ecology. India depends on the Himalayas for natural resources, and forests which are rich in biodiversity are an important resource for mountain states of the country. Jai Raj, principal chief conservator of forests, Uttarakhand, who was one of the speakers at the conference, said, “We are saving our forests very much.” As part of forest conservation and protection, Himalayan states are demanding green bonus for maintaining their forest cover. Experts gathered at the event talked about the gross environmental product and how it can be used to evaluate forests. According to Raj who quoted an estimate from 1990s, Himalayan forest is worth Rs 943 billion per year. The ecosystem service from India's forests stands at Rs 6.96 lakh crore annually. Tiger reserves demarcated inside forests also provide several ecosystem services. The Corbett Tiger Reserve in Uttarakhand pro...

Payment to farmers for providing ecosystem services can ensure guaranteed farm income, make agriculture an attractive option for those who are deserting it and pave the way to sustainable agriculture. In an interview to Down To Earth, Rob Vos, strategic programme leader in FAO’s economic and social affairs division, had earlier said that to engage more youths, agriculture has to be made more “attractive and remunerative”. Presenting his case during the 2nd International Dialogue on Himalayan Ecology, Lalit Kumar of Delhi University said that so far, the focus has always been on two things while debating on increasing farmers' income: raise MSP and reduce the cost of production. There has been a lot of debate about any other alternative ways in which the farmers' income can also be doubled. At a time of agrarian crisis when farmers are committing suicide, farming is considered no more lucrative and sustainable. According to Kumar, there has been a decline in per capita land...

There is a struggle for control over forests in India. On one side are forest communities and environmentalists, while on the other are government-owned forest development corporations (FDCs) and private players, who are trying to acquire forestland for industrial plantations. The contest over forests has led to cases of conflict in several states—the most recent one being in December last year in Maharashtra. When the state government decided to allow the Forest Development Corporation of Maharashtra Ltd to raise teak plantation in 200 sq km of wildlife-rich Bhandara forests, conservationists and local communities were up in protest, making the government rethink the move. Another incident was witnessed in the same state in June 2016 when protesters interrupted felling of trees in Gadchiroli district. A protester also filed a case in the Nagpur bench of the state high court. Why does the FDC need such diverse forests for its plantations when thousands of hectares of degraded fore...

The preliminary finding of the Commission of Railway Safety that the derailment of the Indore-Rajendranagar Express near Kanpur in November 2016 that killed over 140 people was primarily caused by carriage and wagon defects should serve as a reality check for the Railway Ministry. While sabotage is indeed a factor in some derailments, bad railway performance is responsible for the majority. The CRS report merits serious consideration: it has specifically identified a variation in the wheel gauges of two coaches, and found carriages being run beyond their useful life. This is not a rare instance where inquiries have found the Railways seriously deficient. In fact, the annual report of the CRS Lucknow for 2012-13 cites failure of railway equipment, derelict staff, rail fractures and, on some occasions, non-railway factors to be responsible for fatal accidents. The collision of the Hubli-Bengaluru City Hampi Express with a goods train that left 25 people dead, for instance, was caused by...