The U.N. Security Council’s swift political and military
response to the civil strife in South Sudan is welcome, but the
country’s troubles seem far from dissipating. When violence broke out in
various districts of the world’s newest republic a fortnight ago,
analysts saw it as an attempted coup against President Salva Kiir by
forces under the command of former Vice President Riek Machar. Mr.
Machar’s rebel troops were initially successful in taking control of
several strategically important towns in South Sudan, including in the
oil-rich Unity state. Since then, fighting has intensified in the
country’s capital Juba and other provinces, with the United Nations
reporting that “thousands” have
been killed and nearly 80,000 displaced
internally. Meanwhile, the civil war is rapidly snowballing into a
full-fledged ethnic conflict — President Kiir belongs to South Sudan’s
largest tribe, the Dinka, while his deputy-turned-rival hails from the
Nuer tribe. The Army has been split along these tribal lines, with
soldiers battling their own ranks and engaging in indiscriminate killing
of civilians. On December 19, the rebels attacked a U.N. base in Akobo,
in the eastern Jonglei state, killing at least 30 civilians belonging
to the Dinka tribe as well as two Indian peacekeepers. Another Indian
peacekeeper was wounded.
Reinforcing the troop
strength of the United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan
(UNMISS) — what with its limited mandate — will not ameliorate tensions.
To ensure peace, South Sudan is desperately in need of a politically
mediated settlement, chances of which will begin to diminish once the
conflict is reduced to ethnic one-upmanship. Sensing this, African Union
leaders have made their way to Juba to establish a dialogue between the
warring parties. If what Mr. Machar and his loyalists are seeking is a
power-sharing deal, the international community, led by the AU, must
send an unmistakable signal to them that violence cannot be a bargaining
chip in that quest. With the benefit of hindsight, it is apparent that
political struggle was inevitable in a newly independent state under the
shadow of the oil curse; no one expected it to manifest so soon and so
violently. Without effective institutions of state to deal with such a
conflict, South Sudan seems set to face turbulent days ahead. With
unabated political violence, the country is hardly in a position to
attract foreign investment, which it can ill-afford to ignore. India’s
priorities are clear — assist in the UNMISS’s mission in whatever
diplomatic and military way it can, while ensuring the safety and prompt
evacuation of Indian nationals left in South Sudan.
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