A “normal” Japan that takes on greater security responsibilities in Asia, coupled with its new-found confidence under Mr. Abe, bodes well for India and the region.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.— PHOTO: AP
When former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi travelled
to New Delhi in 2005, he was the first Japanese leader to visit India in
more than half a decade. His visit took place at a time when Tokyo
appeared somewhat wary towards India’s overtures for building closer
defence ties. Fast forward a decade, and the relationship has appeared
to have come full circle. It is now Tokyo that appears eager to broaden
the security relationship with India, even pushing to sell its
home-grown amphibious aircraft.
Mr. Koizumi’s visit
has since come to be seen as a turning point. The past decade has seen
an unprecedented level of engagement between both countries, underlined
by regular annual summit meetings between their Prime Ministers, a rare
occurrence in India’s diplomacy with most countries. This intensive
engagement has persisted despite the many changes of government in Tokyo
over the past nine years — as many as four different Prime Ministers
have visited India during this time.
While this has
reflected the consensus across the political spectrum in Japan for
pursuing closer ties with India, no leader has perhaps been as vocal an
advocate for the relationship as current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Mr.
Abe’s ties with India stretch back over two generations. His
grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, who visited India as Prime Minister in
1957, had deeply personal reasons to be grateful to India, particularly
for its support to Japan during its traumatic and isolated post-war
years.
During the Second World War, Kishi served as a
senior official in the puppet Manchukuo government established in
northeastern China following the Japanese occupation. In charge of its
industrial development, he presided over a regime that oversaw
widespread and notorious exploitation and abuse of the local labour
force. Charged with war crimes — he is still regarded in China as a
Class-A War Criminal — Kishi was subsequently cleared of the charges and
went on to become Prime Minister. India extended a warm welcome to
Kishi in 1957 at a time when the country was still largely isolated by
its neighbours. Kishi made clear his gratitude by making India the first
recipient of Japanese Official Development Assistance (ODA).
Mr.
Abe will certainly be mindful of this history when he arrives in New
Delhi this weekend on a visit which will also see him preside over the
Republic Day parade as chief guest. When he visited India as Prime
Minister in 2007, Mr. Abe met with the son of Indian jurist Justice
Radhabinod Pal, the only member of the post-war International Military
Tribunal for the Far East, who cast a dissenting vote against punishing
Japanese officials for war crimes. Among the 50 suspects charged with
war crimes was Mr. Abe’s grandfather, Kishi. Pal presented a lengthy
dissenting opinion questioning the highly politicised tribunal’s
legitimacy and motivations, although he acknowledged the atrocities
committed by Japanese forces.
Mr. Abe has made clear
that his government is looking to reinvigorate the relationship with
India, which has been framed by his aides as a central pillar to his
government’s foreign policy objectives for the region. His first term as
Prime Minister, in 2007, ended in just one year after a series of
missteps left him a widely unpopular leader.
Mr. Abe
was given a second chance in December 2012, when his Liberal Democratic
Party won a resounding victory amid public dissatisfaction with a series
of governments that failed to revive a stagnating economy. Mr. Abe, in
his second innings, wisely made the economy his first priority,
shelving, at least for much of his first year in office, his more
controversial political agenda. Mr. Abe turned to Koichi Hamada, a
professor at Yale University, in crafting a bold and ambitious revival
plan, announcing “three arrows” to save the economy.
Dubbed
“Abenomics”, the three arrows involved massive monetary easing, an
expansionary fiscal policy and a plan for long-term growth. The first
two arrows had largely succeeded in hitting their target, Mr. Hamada
wrote in a recent essay, evinced by a soaring stock market which has
recorded a 40 per cent gain over the past year. The Japanese currency
has also fallen 20 per cent against the dollar, boosting Japanese
businesses by making their exports competitive again.
There
is an unmistakeable return in confidence for beleaguered Japanese
industry and enterprise, a resurgence that is good news for India.
Japanese investments have continued to play a crucial role in building
India’s infrastructure, including the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor.
Japanese assistance towards a Chennai-Bangalore high-speed rail project
is expected to figure during Mr. Abe’s visit. Trade between both
countries reached $ 18.6 billion last year. According to the Japanese
government’s figures, investment into India grew from 15 billion Yen ($
145 million) in 2004 to 543 billion ($ 5.25 billion) in 2008. In 2011,
the figure stood at 181 billion ($ 1.75 billion). Cumulative development
assistance committed to India, according to government figures, has
reached 3800 billion Yen ($ 36.7 billion).
On the
foreign policy front, however, Mr. Abe’s record has been mixed so far.
Mr. Abe has for long stated his ambition of making Japan “a normal
country” and turning the page on elements of the post-war imposed
pacifist Constitution that limits the development of the military. His
project has taken on all the more urgency in the wake of renewed
tensions with China over the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu East China Sea
islands and the rapidly growing strength of the Chinese military.
A
“normal” Japan that takes on greater security responsibilities in Asia,
coupled with its new-found resurgence and confidence under Mr. Abe, no
doubt bodes well for India and the region. Only this month, both sides
agreed to enhance defence consultations, particularly on the issue of
maritime security, when Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera
visited New Delhi.
Mr. Abe’s government has, on the
other hand, risked undermining its regional promise as tensions with
China and South Korea have worsened on the sensitive question of wartime
history. Mr. Abe became the first Japanese leader in seven years to
visit the Yasukuni Shrine, a memorial for the civilians who lost their
lives in the war that also enshrines 14 Class-A war criminals.
The
visit understandably angered China and South Korea, who view the shrine
as glorifying the brutalities of Japanese militarism. The Yasukuni
visit even brought criticism for Mr. Abe at home.
Mr.
Abe will be the fourth Asian leader to be received as the Chief Guest
at the Republic Day parade in the last five years, following leaders
from South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand. The trend — albeit partly a
result of scheduling — highlights India’s increased attention towards
deepening its engagement with the region. It does, however, remain to be
seen how India navigates the increasingly complex tensions that have
cast a cloud on East Asia, and left unclear what impact a resurgent
Japan under Shinzo Abe will ultimately leave on the region.
He will be the fourth Asian leader to be received as the Chief Guest at the Republic Day parade in five years
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